Dr. Housing Bubble

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How I Learned to Love Southern California and Forget the Housing Bubble
Updated: 50 weeks 4 days ago

Financial and psychological double dip for real estate – How new economic news will feed into lower home prices as incomes remain stagnant. Only 11 percent of recent loan volume in the first quarter dealt with purchases.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 15:15
The official double dip in home prices is not significant in the sense that it is a surprising revelation but will carry more traction because of the way the news cycle works.  The press reports on what happened especially when it comes to economics and feeds the beast especially with bubbles.  Virtually every large news [...]


Housing Apocalypse Tomorrow – 675,000 homes in foreclosure have made no payment in over two years. The never ending pipeline of troubled real estate.

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 00:00
There will be no sustainable housing recovery until the shadow inventory is cleared out.  As of April with the latest data close to 6.4 million loans are delinquent or in foreclosure.  This is a massive number of homes.  What is downright disturbing of the 2.2 million homes in foreclosure you have 675,000 homes (31 percent [...]


The lost generation and merging of credit bubbles – College graduates go into massive debt and enter a low wage job market. Median starting salary for the class of 2010 is $27,000. Student loan debt soaring while wages decline and delay a generation fro

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 12:45
The student loan problem connects very closely to the future success or issues housing will face in the next decade.  A large part of the housing machine is based on stable and predictable home price appreciation over long periods of time.  This equilibrium is broken thanks to the recent housing bubble but also many younger [...]


FHA insured loans now cross a giant tipping point exceeding $1 trillion in book value at risk. The low down payment option with rising defaults that will require taxpayer bailouts of billions of dollars.

Sun, 05/22/2011 - 08:51
Cash strapped home buyers have quietly shifted to financing their home purchases with FHA insured loans since the crisis accelerated in 2007 after pocket lint was discounted as sufficient collateral to secure a mortgage.  The reason for the alteration in loan volume is both disturbing and simply reflects the reality that American households are still [...]


Subprime colleges – Student loan debt now equivalent to 7 percent of U.S. GDP. For-profits claim Harvard bragging rights and that barbers can make $150,000 to $250,000 a year to lure students.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 08:43
The explosive growth of student loan debt is troubling for a variety of obvious and not so obvious reasons.  More needed attention is being drawn to higher education and questions are being sharply directed at the way college education is financed.  The bubble in higher education has similar parallels to the bubble experienced in housing.  [...]


Eclipsing a terrible milestone as home prices fall harder than the 1928 through 1933 Great Depression Collapse: Lessons from the Great Depression Part 32. Housing prices continue to fall as other costs eat up disposable income.

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 08:34
Multiple sets of indicators are clearly showing that the housing market is entering a second winter.  Home prices are inching closer to cycle lows and indicators of housing distress are rampant throughout the country.  Home prices during the troubling five years of 1928 through 1933 saw a decline of 25.9 percent nationwide and this was [...]


When the housing bubble pops again. California and the 1,700,000 homes with negative equity – 50 percent of Florida homes in negative equity yet bubble markets persist across the country.

Wed, 05/11/2011 - 09:53
Negative equity is a polite way of saying a homeowner is underwater on their overpaid property.  This is similar language from the financial industry rewording junk bonds into high yield bonds.  Sure sounds better right?  Would you rather be broke or income inclined?  Mr. Orwell would be proud.  Negative equity is now pervasive in our [...]


The 20 year Japanese bear market in real estate is making its way to the United States. Home prices in the U.S. are now in a double-dip and have gone back 8 years. Lower paying jobs, higher expenses, shadow inventory, and big government spending all ali

Sun, 05/08/2011 - 10:21
What if real estate prices remain the same for another decade?  As I look at economic trends in our nation including the jobs we are adding, it is becoming more apparent that we may be entering a time when low wage jobs dominate and home prices remain sluggish for a decade moving forward.  Why would [...]


Financial land of perpetual bubbles – California technology, real estate, and now higher education bubbles. In 1980 the median California household income would have purchased 17 UC bachelor’s degrees. Today it can barely purchase one UC degree.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 00:25
For a few years I have discussed the potential of a higher education bubble and the fallout it will have on the housing market.  Logically you would assume that young adults with back breaking amounts of student loan debt would have a harder time taking on another giant commitment through a 30 year mortgage.  At [...]


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